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Does this product have an incorrect or missing image? Send us a new image. Is this product missing categories? So, in long-term portfolios, by buying into sell-offs, we build up large positions in asset classes that in the long run are apt to come roaring back. Global commodity prices continue to trend down. Despite all the red ink below, we do hold small positions in commodity-linked equity.

Thus we hedge our medium-term forecast risk and position clients for a long-term rebound.

La Carpeta Negra

Relative to energy products, non-energy commodities have suffered a milder drop. Their concern is largest for emerging markets, where private sector bank borrowing, foreign-currency exposure, and corporate bond issuance are on the rise. Risks loom largest in commodity exporting countries, where, often, corporate and sovereign debt risk are hard to tell apart: Our clients have no exposure to emerging market corporate bonds but do have small tactical positions in dollar-denominated emerging market sovereign debt.

We intend to close these positions out as soon as we feel secure that the Fed is close to hiking rates to protect client wealth from copycat moves by emerging market central banks geared at protecting home-country currency valuations.

La Carpeta Negra y Otros Cuentos (Spanish, Paperback)

We expect that this move on our part to close out tactical longs in emerging market sovereign debt will take place long before any risk from a state takeover of contingent liabilities is likely to blow up. In developed markets, the focus is on liquidity risks. These, say analysts, the IMF, and the New York Fed , have been rising on account of market structure changes—increased concentrations in corporate bonds by mutual funds, pension funds, and insurance companies, and balance sheets swollen with sovereign bond holdings by central banks practicing quantitative easing.


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The concern is that a market dislocation could take place that causes prices to momentarily dive and that holders even of developed market bonds wishing to offload their bonds might momentarily find no takers. These risks are said to extend even to currently liquid market such as the one for U. We have been gradually exiting from corporate bonds anyway, and are not afraid of U.

We began our exit by closing out client positions in U. Then, last week, we began replacing U. Admittedly, our decision of last week to start switching from corporate investment grade to Treasuries was driven chiefly by disappointing investment grade corporate bond returns relative to those on comparable Treasury bonds, especially during the ongoing market correction.

H.J. Pilgrim

But it has the added benefit of offering protection from the liquidity risks nagging the IMF and others. Of course, our U. Treasury holdings would not protect clients from a momentary disruption in the Treasury market. We think, however, that, either the episode would be over in a matter of minutes, in which case our client portfolios, which have investment horizons of at least six months, would be unaffected, or, if the episode threatened to become prolonged, the Fed would intervene by supplying bonds via issuance of repos repurchase agreements.

In summary, our portfolio strategies do take into account the bond market liquidity risks being examined by the IMF and others. Their exposure to U. Treasury securities is much larger. Latest monetary policy and bond yield forecasts. Concerns about liquidity and maturation of the credit cycle are causing corporate credit to spike.


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